While pundits debate and tweet about voter behavior from afar, the Institute for Reforming Government and Citizens for Free Enterprise Action went straight to the source. In a new report, What Wisconsin Wants, The Views of 2024 Trump Voters who sat out the 2022 Gubernatorial Election, the two organizations share findings from in-depth, one-on-one qualitative research conducted directly with seventeen Wisconsin voters who voted for President Donald Trump in 2024 — but did not cast a ballot in the 2022 governor's race.

These participants reflect a broad cross-section of Wisconsin — spanning different regions, backgrounds, and socioeconomic statuses — underscoring that this is not a narrow or targeted segment, but a wider group of voters with shared perceptions about state government.

The result is one of the most detailed examinations yet of a voter segment that is large enough to swing every statewide race in Wisconsin — and whose absence from off-year elections has had real consequences on state policy. The full report can be read here.

The research, conducted by Heart+Mind Strategies’ Erin Norman and Jaclyn Crawford through a multi-day online qualitative bulletin board, found the barrier isn't political disagreement or even ideology. It's visibility.

"I just don't really know what the effects are that I feel on a state level. Maybe if I paid more attention, I would know what impacts I felt for the year that my state elections were responsible for.”

— Suburban Trump Voter

KEY FINDINGS:

• These voters associate economic solutions with Washington — not Madison. Most voters in this segment believe federal policy drives their economic reality. They understand state government handles schools, roads, and local issues in the abstract, but fail to connect the decisions of state government to their monthly bills
• They didn't vote in 2022 because they felt uninformed — not disengaged. About 10 of 17 participants said they skipped the governor's race because they didn't know enough about the candidates or the issues to vote confidently. Negative campaign ads made it worse, not better.
• The conversation itself changes behavior. When these voters were shown concrete examples of how state policy affects their taxes, schools, and cost of living, interest in participating in state elections increased significantly — often in the same session.
• 2026 participation is winnable — but not guaranteed. Most of this segment says they're likely or neutral about voting in the 2026 governor's race, and most lean Republican. But very few are paying attention now. Outreach that makes state government tangible will be the deciding factor.
• The cost of living dominates everything. Whether voters called it inflation, housing, taxes, or the economy, every concern traced back to the gap between income and the cost of living. This is the issue that moves this voter segment.

KEY QUOTES FROM PARTICIPANTS:
On why state elections feel distant:

"There's so much kind of hype and news and social media around the presidential race that's just significantly more than governor's races."
— Rural Republican

On what would bring them back:

"I would 100% vote in the next election if I could easily read information on the policies that each candidate plans to roll out and exactly how it would impact my day-to-day life."
— Suburban Independent

On the moment the conversation shifted:

"I never thought twice about who actually has 'more' control over ideas close to home, especially when it comes to schools and law enforcement.”
— Urban Republican

THREE WAYS TO ENGAGE LOW-PROPENSITY TRUMP VOTERS:

Make state government matter. These voters are not disengaged from politics — they are disconnected from the state government. Campaigns must clearly and consistently show how decisions in Madison directly impact their cost of living, taxes, schools, and daily lives.

Close the information gap. This is not an ideological problem — it’s an accessibility problem. Many of these voters sat out because they felt uninformed. Providing simple, transparent, and easy-to-digest information about candidates and state issues can significantly increase participation.

Turn relevance into turnout. With more than 140,000 voters in this segment, their participation could decide the 2026 governor’s race. When these voters see how state government affects them, they are far more likely to engage — making targeted, practical outreach the difference-maker.

THE BOTTOM LINE:

The research suggests turnout in state elections may depend less on changing these voters' views and more on making the impact of state government more visible. This is not a persuasion problem. It is a visibility problem — and it is solvable.